2025 Annual State of the Private Market

As of December 2024, Hiive’s monthly active users grew 398% year-over-year, increasing 63% in Q4 alone.  This growth in usage correlated with a dramatic rise in the number of bids placed on the platform during the same period, increasing the liquidity available to private companies and their shareholders.

Throughout 2024, we saw three meaningful trends shape private markets:  

The Hiive50 Index outpaced public benchmarks

The Hiive50 index outperformed both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 in 2024. The Hiive50 returned 38.4% in 2024, surpassing the cap-weighted S&P 500 index (SPX) by 15.1% and the equal-weighted Nasdaq-100 Technology Index (NDTX) by 31.3%. The Hiive50’s outperformance came after the index lagged the S&P 500 during most of 2024.

Among the six sectors of the Hiive50 Index we track, AI, High-Tech Hardware, and Web3 stood out in 2024, each growing over 120%. 4 of the top 6 companies in the Hiive50 are both AI and High-Tech Hardware companies, including semiconductor design companies and cloud hosts. 

Consumer, FinTech, and SaaS achieved modest positive returns in 2024 partly driven by new entrants to the Hiive50. FinTech and SaaS rallied in December to achieve double-digit quarterly returns, suggesting a broadening of momentum in the private market.

Hiive’s marketplace shifts in favor of sellers

Trading data indicates that marketplace dynamics are shifting in favor of sellers in the private markets.

More bids per listing can produce better outcomes for sellers. In December of 2024, we saw the ratio of bids per listing increase 73% year-over-year to a record-high 1.3.  While these bids are not evenly distributed across all securities, increased investor activity can narrow bid-ask spreads and result in more closed transactions.

This shift appears to be a result of accelerating demand.  During the period, transaction growth outpaced listing growth for the first time on the Hiive platform. The growth in the 30 day rolling average of daily accepted bids accelerated to 165% year-over-year, while listings grew less, at 119%. This emergent trend implies increasingly positive outcomes for sellers.

More private companies offered liquidity to shareholders

Private companies became more permissive of stock trading in 2024. For transactions submitted for company approval on Hiive, the approval rate rose from 67% in 2023 to 72% in 2024. This increase was driven by a number of factors, including employee and shareholder demands given the IPO window has remained mostly shut. Sellers tend to be more likely to submit transactions for approval when they expect them to be approved, and this total excludes those that were canceled before completion.

Companies also increased usage of their right of first refusal (ROFR) to substitute themselves or a current shareholder for the originally proposed buyer. The ROFR rate increased from 12% to 18% year-over-year. When combined with approved sales, 90% of ad hoc secondary transfers that Hiive submitted for company approval resulted in successful transactions for sellers.

The trend of issuer permissiveness is not surprising, given the fact that employees rate their career satisfaction higher when they are allowed to sell stock. In a recent Hiive report, we found that liquidity-blocking companies face unhappier employees across a range of employer brand metrics. 

Contrary to conventional wisdom that a 'golden handcuffs' approach to employee options leads to better retention, employees at companies that are non-permissive of stock sales more commonly report looking elsewhere, while permissive companies keep employees focused on their current work. In fact, respondents at non-permissive employers report they are 16 percentage points less likely to stay as long as they can, when compared to counterparts at permissive companies.

Expanding liquidity in private markets

The Hiive50 shows broadening representation

The Q1 Hiive50 Index shows which companies had the greatest liquidity on Hiive in the second half of 2024. Membership in the Hiive50 is determined by a liquidity score incorporating the frequency and volume of closed secondary activity for each company on the Hiive platform in the 6 months prior to the constitution date. 

Overall, the demand for AI hardware and infrastructure stocks pushed Cerebras Systems and CoreWeave toward the top of the index. While AI and crypto leaders retain solid representation, some constituents from these hot sectors dropped out of the index, making way for companies in direct-to-consumer, retail tech, and quantum computing. All told, 13 companies joined the index for the first time.

Prominent new joiners include:

• Glean: The enterprise search challenger closed a Series E in September, raising $260 million at a $4.6 billion valuation (1).

• Huntress: The tech-enabled cybersecurity services provider disclosed plans for an IPO after reaching $100 million in annual recurring revenues (2).

• Oura: The wearable ring unicorn raised a $200 million Series D to reach a $5.2 billion valuation (3).

• SeatGeek: The operator of a mobile-focused ticket platform for live events is reportedly pursuing an IPO (4).

CoreWeave spotlight

For illustrative purposes only

CoreWeave was the top gainer in the Hiive50, advancing 34 spots in the last six months based on a high number of transactions at a range of sizes. CoreWeave's stock price movement appears to be reflecting expectations for a pending IPO (5). In addition to very active free market trading, the company executed a tender offer during Q4, valuing the business around $23 billion (6). The deal featured investment from primarily public market investors Fidelity Management, Jane Street, Magnetar, and Macquarie Capital.

Private tender offers’ breakout year

For private companies, tender offer sizes had a breakout year in 2024, driven by late-stage tech companies. Tender offers are not new, but for leading unicorns they have become an alternative to initial public offerings. According to PitchBook, 25% of unicorns have publicly disclosed a secondary transaction since 2020, many of which are large-scale tender offers (7).

In late 2023, OpenAI raised a $1 billion tender offer from Thrive Capital and followed up with a $1.5 billion tender offer from SoftBank in 2024. Databricks closed a $10 billion non-dilutive investment last year that resembled a tender offer in selling employee shares. Aside from these outlier deals, five companies in the Hiive50 Index disclosed a tender offer in 2024 with an additional 3 companies reportedly planning tender offers in 2025.  

Accelerating marketplace momentum

Monthly active users on the Hiive marketplace grew 398% year-over-year in 2024, demonstrating a rush of participants seeking to transact in the market for private stock. Institutional users played a major role in this growth, increasing 106% year-over-year. Growth in usage by both institutions and individuals resulted in a dramatic rise in the number of bids placed on the platform, creating increased liquidity for private companies and their shareholders. 

In 2024, the private markets demonstrated strong performance, a shift in favor of sellers, and increasing permissiveness by issuers to allow private stock transactions.  These trends re-enforce the maxim that liquidity begets liquidity, making us optimistic that 2025 will show continued growth in secondary market outcomes for issuers and shareholders alike. 

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