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    Liquidity Remains Scarce in Buyer’s Market

Private Market Report - September 2023

Liquidity Remains Scarce in Buyer’s Market

A choppy August in the public markets gave no clear direction to private markets. After a buoyant July, the average transaction price fell slightly, back below 60% of the last funding round value. Buyers and sellers continued to express  divergent views on the market’s direction, keeping the bid/ask spread near the highs of the cyclical downturn.

However, the market’s lack of direction did not hinder the continued growth in activity on the Hiive platform. The number of private companies with buy or sell activity on the platform during the month notched another all-time high, along with nearly 3,000 orders to buy or sell. The value of active listings for sale during the month also reached an all time high near $2 billion. Finally, accepted bids (matches between buyers and sellers) on Hiive remained at all time high levels.. 

Marketplace highlights

535

Private issuers with activity on the platform during the month

2,924

Live orders to buy or sell on platform

59.5%

Average transaction price as % of last known funding round

$1.86Bn

Value of listings for sale on the platform

Market momentum

The median bid, quoted as a discount to last round value, remained  stuck near cyclical lows at 58.4% last month, marking its sixth consecutive month in this range.. The median ask tightened slightly to a 39.2% discount, but also remained near the long-term lows of recent months. This persistent and gaping spread between buyers and sellers suggests that liquidity remains scarce and costly. . 

The bright side in this data for private market participants is apparent continued stability, particularly when  compared to earlier this year. While things are not going up, they appear not to be going down either, as the market has fallen into something of a holding pattern. Buyers and sellers alike should keep a close watch on the emerging IPO thaw: strong performance from those newly-minted public companies could herald a significant upward movement above the tightly-bounded range of the past few months.

Median bid and ask (Sep 2023 trailing 12 months)

Bid/ask ratio

In August 2023, the bid/ask ratio on Hiive fell significantly to 0.42, down from 0.52 in the previous month. This marks the lowest bid/ask ratio so far in 2023, indicating that there is no end in sight to this strong buyer’s market.

Average bid/ask spread

The average bid/ask spread rose to 29.2%, notching a 4-month high. The market’s inability to bridge or even narrow this yawning gap confirms that the current higher interest rate environment has severely constrained the supply of capital into the venture capital asset class. Sellers are holding out for a continued market rebound while buyers take cues from a choppy August in the public markets.


Noteworthy flows

Reddit was one of the most active names on Hiive in August, with six bids accepted for the company's stock during the month. Investors seem unconcerned by the user backlash over unpopular changes to Reddit’s API earlier this year.

Flexport stock had an active month in August on Hiive with several buyers and sellers placing orders for the logistics startup ahead of the surprise return of founder and former CEO, Ryan Petersen, to the company's helm and recent reports that revenues sank 70% in the first half of 2023.

Omada saw upwards of $3 million transactions agreed upon in the month. This jump in activity coincided with the company earning the prestigious Utilization Review Accreditation Commission (URAC) telehealth accreditation for Musculoskeletal Care, making it the first fully-virtual healthcare provider to do so. Several buyers placed bids for the company, making it one of Hiive’s most active securities after months of relative inactivity.

Databricks remained a highly sought-after name with 10 bids accepted in August. Trading continues apace in the company after the announcement of a new $500 million funding round just days ago.

Anduril continued to be in high demand as it garnered a rare premium to its last funding round in trading. Investor sentiment may be buoyed by the recent announcement of the development of an autonomous fighter jet.

FourKites shareholders accepted a number of bids as demand for shares in the logistics and supply-chain startup bucked a recent negative trend in the space. This momentum in the secondary market comes as the company announced an expansion of its leadership team to support its growth and global expansion.

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